Monday, December 15, 2008

Worrisome

This afternoon I went to Baja Fresh for lunch which I generally do about once a week or so. I usually walk but because it is raining, I drove over. I spotted a parking spot between Cold Stone and Baja Fresh which meant no worries about melting in the rain. As I was turning off my headlights (A California law says that if your wipers are on so must your headlights) I noticed that the shop next to Baja Fresh had a realtor's AVAILABLE sign on the window. What!? Quiznos used to be there--it was there last week--no it is gone.
Last week, I noticed that the Office Depot in Canyon Country is closed. As is the Starbucks across from Sam's Club. Down in Stevenson Ranch both a shoe store and Linen's and Things also closed or closing. Mervin's of course has a big yellow--store closing sign on it. Furniture shops have been closing for the past year, ever since the housing bubble burst.
The only good news in all this is that gas is lower than I have seen it since I returned to the United States 8 years ago. Otherwise, I am worried about the future. I hope that Obama can inspire America the way Kennedy did and can make clear and decisive decisions. He is already being built up to be the next Roosevelt. But as my mother pointed out it was really the war that got us out of the last depression. What will do it this time? Getting us out of the war that helped get us into it?
I remember the 70's, many of my earliest memories have to do with Watergate and the end of the Vietnam War. I remember gas prices rocketing from 25 cents a gallon to over $1. I remember eating a lot of beans and cornbread. These were not easy times. Then the 80's hit and everything seemed to get better--for a while--until the Savings and Loan scandal wreaked havoc and the bottom seemed to drop out again. By the time I was getting ready to finish college others were planning on Master's and PhD's--anything to keep from having to pay the mounting loans off with few job prospects. Advisers recommended that everyone be prepared for a 6-12 month job search. I chose to go to Japan where I had a job waiting for me. I bounced back and forth between the US, Japan, and Europe for the next 10 years. Clinton came in and the country was soaring. In the mean time, I lived through the bubble and bust of Japan's economy--a yen rate that got out of control, I saw approximately a 30% reduction of my salary using exchange rates. Clinton was in office, America was riding an economic tidal wave. I decided to come back.
So now, I am living through the bust of America's economy. It took years for Japan to grapple with their economy and I am still not sure that they have ever addressed some of the major problems with it. Korea got their's under control with a population that was willing to drag out their gold from family coffers and give it to the government. Is that what it will take for us? Would we be willing to make the sacrifice? I am still worried. But I remain hopeful.

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